SWOPblogger

Frontera Norte Sur - Dependent on the US economy, the ups and downs of Mexico's maquiladora, or export assembly, industry are indicators of larger trends in the US and global economies. In Ciudad Juarez, the birthplace of the Mexican industry, scenes of idled production lines and laid off workers back in 2000 foretold the US recession that hit some months later. While US economists debate the prospects for recession in 2008, maquiladora industry observers in Mexico are also split in their assessments of whether or not recent factory layoffs mean bigger economic storm clouds are brewing on the horizon.

In a reversal of a job growth trend that held for much of 2007, export manufacturing plants in Ciudad Juarez have dismissed significant numbers of workers in recent months. According to El Diario de Juarez, 9,089 maquiladora workers lost their jobs during the last four months, including 5,802 in the months of the November and December. Overall, the layoffs lowered employment in the local maquiladora industry from 243,845 workers last November to 238,043 in December.

Arnulfo Castro Munive, human resources director for Columbus Industries Mexico, predicted more layoffs will occur by the summer. Jorge Doroteo Zapata, Chihuahua state leader of the Workers Confederation of Mexico, concurred with Castro's projections. Citing the planned closing of Ciudad Juarez's emblematic RCA plant this year, the labor leader contended that US economic conditions will make 2008 a "very difficult year" for border workers. Dedicated to producing televisions, RCA's Ciudad Juarez division employed as many 7,000 workers in its heyday three decades ago. According to Doroteo, the RCA shut-down will leave an additional 600 workers without jobs.

Other maquiladora industry watchers are more upbeat about 2008. Officials with the Chihuahua Secretariat of Industrial Development challenge the notion that the maquiladora sector is in a renewed crisis. Recent layoffs, they argue, are merely part of normal end-of-the-year production restructurings. Adan Gomez, promotional director for the secretariat, insisted that "stability" reigns in the maquiladora industry, with Ciudad Juarez even expected to attract new high-tech jobs. Cesar Castro, president of the National Council of the Maquiladora and Export Manufacturing Industry, even predicted a four or five percent growth rate for the Mexican maquiladora business in 2008.

Sources: La Jornada, February 22 and 25, 2008. Articles by Ruben
Villalpando and Julio Reyna Quiroz. El Diario de Juarez, February 22,
2008.