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karlos says: The following are excerpts from Frontera Norte-Sur, an online news source and mail list dedicated to bringing you news from the border. You can subscribe below. The actual article is much longer and can be requested below through the subscription email...

Mexican Elections are in the spotlight this year as the media and others are tracking the trend of left leaning election results all over Latin America, and as the immigration debate heats up in the US.

Go here for another take on the election. And keep looking back, as I'll be posting other interesting links...

On the Eve of Mexico's Big Election Day: Narcos, Soccer and Spin
By Kent Paterson

Frontera Norte-Sur
June 29, 2006

In less than 72 hours, Mexican voters will go the polls to elect a new president and congress. Pre-election surveys claim a very tight race between two of the five presidential candidates: former Mexico City Mayor Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, the standard-bearer of the center-left For the Good of All coalition, and Felipe Calderon of President Fox's conservative National Action Party (PAN). In an interview with Frontera NorteSur, Roy Campos, the president of Mitofsky Consultants, one of Mexico's leading polling organizations, said polls give a slight edge to Lopez Obrador but the election outcome is impossible to predict. "The polls showed that it's a competitive scenario. We simply have to wait for the election results and respect them," Campos said. Whoever wins the race will have to excel as a political negotiator, because a split Mexican Congress with no one party in control is the likely outcome of next Sunday's elections. "We're going to have a president corralled by a divided congress," Campos predicted.

Widely criticized for extravagant campaign spending and mud-slinging in place of a serious debate, the final days of the 2006 election campaign have been marked by charges and countercharges. Especially between the Lopez Obrador and Calderon camps, allegations of influence peddling, vote-buying, money laundering, manipulation of voter rolls and ballot-counting software, physical intimidation, illegal church interference, and destruction of campaign publicity are flying about fast and heavy.

Considered the third-rated candidate in the polls, Roberto Madrazo of the Alliance for Mexico, a coalition made up of the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) and Mexican Green Party, is making a last-ditch effort to pull ahead by positioning himself outside the Lopez Obrador- Calderon slugfest and portraying his candidacy as the centrist alternative to the right-wing "neoliberalism" of Caldreon and the left-wing "radicalism" of Lopez Obrador.

Th Propaganda War
Pulling out the heavy artillery, the Calderon camp saturated the airwaves with hard-hitting spots, while e-mails, some of them anonymous and accompanied by scenes of narco-executions in Acapulco, circulated on the Internet and warned of disaster if Lopez Obrador is elected president. Comparing Lopez Obrador's economic reform proposals to the debacles of the Lopez Portillo and Salinas de Gortari administrations, the media offensive stokes fears of inflation, economic stagnation, debt and doom. On the flip side of the coin, other Calderon spots that don't directly attack Lopez Obrador emphasize growth, stability and employment. According to the El Universal newspaper, Calderon, who is President Fox's favored successor, has spent about $55 million dollars on electronic spots just in Mexico City, Guadalajara and Monterrery since last January. From June 17 to 23, 3,335 Calderon spots aired nationally, including more than 300 during prime-time hours, according to the newspaper.

For the first real time in decades, a pronounced left-right polarization in Mexican politics is resurfacing and rekindling long-standing divisions which were submerged somewhat during previous elections by a common focus on ousting the PRI from power. Ultra-conservative groups are reviving and updating old, anti-communist messages, casting Lopez Obrador in the same mold as Fidel Castro, Hugo Chavez and Evo Morales. As Hugo Chavez shouts "socialism or death" on one television spot, images of AK-47 rifles flash on the screen. Lopez Obrador is not mentioned in the ad, but following months of similar spots that clearly showed Mexico City's former chief executive as part of Chavez and company, everyone gets the message. Anti-Lopez Obrador forces are clearly betting on a Peru Effect, wagering that Chavez's image will help them triumph over the supposed leftist demon.

Lopez Obrador's partisans contend a "dirty war" is being waged against their candidate, but they are not shy either about passing out or posting insulting literature about Calderon and the PAN. Nonetheless, many pro-Lopez Obrador media messages generally have a positive, upbeat message. "Smile, we're going to win," proclaims a common bumper sticker.

Class schisms are more obvious in the 2006 campaign than in previous ones. Without generalizing, Calderon is gathering support from small business owners and other middle class sectors, while Lopez Obrador draws backing from small farmers, workers and low-income segments of the population.

In certain respects, the 2006 election exposes the two Mexicos sketched by analyst Sabino Bastidas. One Mexico travels abroad, learns other languages, uses the Internet, and sips imported coffee and snacks on two-dollar muffins at the local Starbuck's, which are spreading across the land; conversely, the other Mexico does not own a computer, attends crummy schools and is hard-pressed to make a living of any kind.

On a lighter note, and one which easily unites most Mexicans, most of the political parties took advantage of the hugely popular World Soccer Cup to fashion campaign propaganda that portrayed the candidates as winning soccer stars. Aping the current marketing campaigns for cell-phones and Coca-Cola, soccer was melded into politics. Restaurants, bars and private homes were packed on June 24, the long-awaited but finally heart-breaking showdown between Mexico and Argentina. A day that began with noisy pre-celebrations and rising expectations as Mexico gave Argentina a surprisingly good match ended in whimpers when the Aztec eagle was eliminated from the competition. Still, the 2-1 defeat was close. Expect similar emotional roller-coaster rides on July 2 or July 3.

Hot Spots and Narco-Violence
Numerous Mexican election and government officials are discounting possible trouble from a number of sizzling social conflicts. A June 28 general strike earlier announced by several major unions fizzled out, but the massive teacher's strike in Oaxaca state, now entering its second month, could impact Sunday's voting.

Mexican officials deny that a sharp upturn in suspected narco-violence will negatively affect the election. Press accounts report that about 1,000 people have been have been murdered gang-land style in Baj California, Tamaulipas, Sinaloa, Chihuahua, Michoacan, Guerrero, and other states since the beginning of the year. Recent victims included a guard for Baja California Governor Eugenio Elorduy and the son of leading PAN activist in Reynosa, Tamaulipas.

As the elections approach, a new wave of violence is striking tourist cities like Acapulco, where 8 bodies were discovered strewn about the streets on June 25- the same day Lopez Obrador held a massive closing campaign rally in the Pacific Coast port. Three days later, the head of a victim was placed on the grounds of Acapulco`s city hall.

In Cancun, the city's second-ranking police commander was murdered onJune 26, while in another tourist resort, Ixtapa-Zihuatanejo, unidentified assailants tossed grenades at two police stations early on the morning of June 24. In the first attack, an explosion at the tourist police station in downtown Zihuatanejo shattered windows of the police building, a patrol car and an adjacent boutique. Two officers were slightly injured by the explosion from a fragmentation grenade.

The attack occurred very close to bars that were crowded with Mexican nationals and foreign tourists. Shaken by the blast, tourists watched as armed Mexican police scoured the streets for possible suspects. Joshua Stephens, a 23-year-old tourist from the US Midwest, was entering a popular bar with his brother and girlfriend when the blast sent patrons to the floor for cover. "Everybody was very confused," Stephens said. "And then I walked and looked around the corner just to see what was going on and there was a lot of smoke, a lot of dust…"

Besides murders and grenade attacks, Zihuatanejo has a growing problem of attempted abductions and forced disappearances. Reminiscent of Ciudad Juarez, posters of missing men are visible on city streets. Two weeks ago, hundreds of residents staged a "silent march" to demand answers about the disappeared. None have been forthcoming.

In a widely quoted remark , Jose Luis Santiago Vasconcelos, the head of the federal government's elite SIEDO anti-organized crime squad, downplayed the possible impact of the narco-violence on the election. Commenting on Acapulco killings, Vasconcelos said a cluster of recent murders only meant that "seven less (people) are going to vote."

State Elections
Virtually uncovered in the US national press, elections for state and local offices will be held in Mexico City and 9 states on July 2, including the northern border states of Sonora and Nuevo Leon. Some observers assess the negative tone of the governor's campaign in Jalisco state (the home of Mexico's second largest city, Guadalajara) as equaling or surpassing that of the national race. A recent story in the national news magazine Proceso framed the Jalisco governor's contest as a choice between the narco, allegedly infiltrated into the campaign of the PRI's Arturo Zamora, and the ultra-right, embedded in the PAN's slate headed by former Guadalajara Mayor Emilio Gonzalez.

Once the election victors are proclaimed, political analysts will have a lot of meat to chew on this year. Observers will be carefully monitoring the voter turn-out rate which, if as low as predicted, could actually favor one political force over another. A Calderon defeat could signal, in part, the backfiring of negative campaigning techniques prevalent in this election campaign and strikingly similar in style and tone to those perfected in US politics. On the other hand, a Calderon victory will probably reinforce notions that massively buying air time and aggressively attacking the opponent is the path to success.

Frontera NorteSur (FNS): on-line, U.S.-Mexico border news
Center for Latin American and Border Studies
New Mexico State University
Las Cruces, New Mexico

For a free electronic subscription email fnsnews@nmsu.edu
mailto:fnsnews@nmsu.edu


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